Keys-by-TEARN mobile platform
Diary of a passionate, tech Dad
from TEARN i.e. teach to learn

Showing posts with label stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stats. Show all posts

Aug 27, 2012

Mobile Commerce Stats

Report: One-Third Of U.S. Moms Own Connected Devices, 97% Of iPad Moms Shopped From Their Tablet Last Month

Remember when everyone in the tech industry sort of took a step back, looked at Pinterest, and said, whoa, this whole digital moms demographic might have some legs to it? Well, as it turns out, moms aren’t just out there pinning recipes and home decor to their Pinterest boards – they’re heavy-duty digital consumers across all channels, including not only social media, but also in e-commerce and on mobile.


Jul 2, 2012

Apple's iOS takes 65% mobile browser share in June, Android at 20%

Apple Insider

Among specific browser software, Apple's Safari was tracked with 4.7 percent of the market, well behind Google's Chrome (19.1 percent), Mozilla Firefox (20.1 percent), and Microsoft's Internet Explorer (54 percent).

Aug 5, 2011

Apple Takes Lead In Smartphone Shipments, But Samsung Is On Its Heels

According to a report from IDC, Apple shipped more smartphones than any other manufacturer in Q2, stealing bragging rights from a strugglingNokia. With 20.3 million units shipped, Apple managed to nab a 19.1 percent market share, representing year-over-year growth of 141.7 percent. Samsung and Nokia followed behind, with RIM and HTC bringing up the rear.

It’s worth noting that HTC posted record numbers this quarter with 166 percent YOY growth to claim an 11.7 percent market share, up from 8.9 percent last quarter. The HTC Sensation and Evo 3D had quite a bit to do with that, along with HTC’s increasing prominence in China. Even though the company ranks fifth, it still seemed to eat a large portion of RIM and Nokia’s share. But HTC wasn’t alone in that — Samsung took a big bite, too.

In fact, Samsung’s had an amazing year, seeing year-over-year growth of 380.6 percent. Much of that success can be attributed to the Samsung Galaxy S II, which sold 3 million units in its first 55 days on the market. If they can maintain anything like that growth for a little longer, they’ll leapfrog Apple with ease.

Now for the bad news. RIM shipped a little over one million more smartphones this quarter than it did in the same quarter of 2010 — which would be a respectable bump if the smartphone market itself hadn’t seen far greater growth, hitting 106.5 million shipments overall this quarter. So while RIM didship more handsets, they actually lost a ton of market share. (FULL)

Jun 14, 2011

The $300 Million Brain Games Industry Just Got A Major Research Boost

kidsBrain games for children have recently exploded into a $300 million software market. This trendy industry got another boost this week when a major study found that brain games really do make kids smarter.

Psychologist Susanne Jaeggi at the University of Michigan found that training children to hold a cluster of items in their memory can have lasting benefits.

32 elementary and middle school children went though a monthlong regimen of computer games that tested and challenged their working memory. The so-called "n-back test" forced kids to remember a sequence and answer questions about it over time.

Another 30 worked on answering general knowledge and vocabulary questions.

After several months of training, the children who improved most at the "n-back test" were the highest performers on a test of abstract reasoning. Thus the researchers concluded that for some children, brain training games were more effective than any teaching method: "Cognitive training can be effective and long-lasting, but that there are limiting factors that must be considered to evaluate the effects of this training, one of which is individual differences in training performance."

If your kid enjoys brain training games, then they really are making her smarter. If she doesn't enjoy them, however, then parents should save their money.

Jun 3, 2011

Android Leads in U.S. Smartphone Market Share and Data Usage

Smartphones and the consumption of mobile data continue to grow in popularity in the U.S. – 37 percent of mobile consumers now have one – and Google’s Android operating system (OS) is proving to be the most popular. According to Nielsen’s April survey of mobile consumers, 36 percent of smartphone consumers now have an Android device, compared to 26 percent for Apple iOS smartphones (iPhones) and 23 percent for RIM Blackberry.

Hungry for Data
Consumers with Android and Apple iOS smartphones exhibit data-intensive usage:

  • 74 percent of Android smartphone owners and 79 percent of iPhone owners report having downloaded apps in the past 30 days
  • 43 percent of Android owners and 46 percent of iPhone owners say they streamed online music or mobile radio in the past 30 days
  • 35 percent of Android smartphone consumers and 37 percent of iPhone owners report having watched video or mobile TV in the past 30 days

But while a higher proportion of iPhone owners engage in these kinds of activities, consumers with Android devices who engage in these activities consume more data on average. An analysis of nearly 65,000 cellphone bills in the U.S. reveals that in the first quarter of 2011, Android smartphone owners consumed an average of 582 MB of data each month, compared to 492 MB for iPhone owners.


Source: Android Leads in U.S. Smartphone Market Share and Data Usage

May 20, 2011

World Distribution for Keys by TEARN

The mobile web is global.

Although the United States leads smartphone adoption, mobile use by Americans make up less than 4% of the global total.

A year ago, North America was 90% of our users. We've expanded our coverage to entertain international users with special sections for Asia and the UK. Our coverage of sports has been global - the use of European football and racing apps has overwhelmed the interest in American sports. We've also experimented with apps in various languages.

This week, USA traffic has grown dramatically, but North America is less than 38% of the unique visitors.

In another year, we expect that the North American share to drop below 20% - even while the absolute number of USA users will continue to grow.


Feb 6, 2011

Google Opens Android Market to Web Users

On February 3rd, Google opened its Android Market to web users. The impact for our Keys mobile platform has been unique and beyond all expectations.

Android Market from Phones

Prior to the third, the estimated 70 million Android phone users worldwide can only discover and download apps from their phone. This process is slow and limited, hindering discovery of apps buried on pages 2 through 100 of a category.

Further, mobile operators like Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile have packed the phones with pre-loaded apps - making it difficult for users to find the Android Market icon on their crowded phone.

Third-party websites have tried to provide discovery and purchase services for users from their PC. However, these companies lack the marketing needed to draw significant interest. Thus, we've seen little referrals from those websites.

Android Market from Computers

Google opened the market for users to access from computers via a website. A PC can download a page of apps and their icons in fractional seconds. Phones require 4 to 10 seconds per page. By creating a website for apps, users can use faster computers and faster networks to browse and search for apps. The web market sends the requested downloads directly to the phone. The impact has been dramatic and instantaneous.

Our Android traffic is up 300% to 400% - and still rising.

Featured apps that are already on page one are unlikely to notice any change. Also, developers with apps buried on page 200 are unlikely to notice any difference.

Our Keys apps are typically tops among dozens of mainstream subjects. However, these subjects can be easily buried by cute titles such as Angry Birds, Tap Tap Revenge, and other apps.

Now that it's easier and faster for users to find top apps on pages 2 to 100, we have been one of the main beneficiaries. Thank you for searching and downloading our apps.

Jan 27, 2011

Challenge of Mobile Metrics

The combination of mobile phones and tablets has caused a sea-change for Internet use. These new devices are expected to become the dominate means to access the new web --- driving the majority of website views. Unfortunately, the legacy tools that track this change has not been updated. This article extends the description of the problems.

Mobile Challenges

Legacy systems use cookies to track visitors and page views. Advanced systems like Google Analytics (GA) track exits on a page - to determine the length of a visit. The exit monitor depends on an HTTP feature that often fails.

The combination of failed cookies and slower networks with mobile devices causes GA to understate actual use by 70% or worse. In other words, GA captures only 2 of 10 actual page views.

The problem gets worse.

Apps Versus Web Pages

Is an app just a web page? Updated with HTML5 features?

This past article concludes that an app can replace a website, but a website is not always an app. Let's take a more detailed look at the problem.
  • App View: Each Keys app is equivalent to a 500+ page book. The entire book is downloaded in one HTTP request. Legacy systems track an app view as only one page view.
  • Page View: Users flick through the pages of an app - which is not tracked by legacy systems. Since tracking of every page change can impact performance on slow mobile networks and devices, we sample app use to track page views. Our sample shows that users can flick through one to 50 pages per app. The mean is double digits, but the variance is extremely high.
  • Slide View: Each page presents a slideshow where each slide can be intepreted as a page view. Our sampling shows that users can view 1 to 1,000 slides per app. The mean is triple digits, but again, the variance is so high that we cannot conclude any significance to the mean value.
Since GA and other tools cannot count page and slide views without impacting mobile performance - we can only conclude that the data reported by GA is only a sampling of how users interact with Keys. The actual data suggests that user interaction with the Keys platform is over 20 times any legacy measures of web use.

Our problems are similar to any multi-level game or ebook reader. Thus, the mobile metrics problem may be universal to the new web ecosystem.

Mobile Web Emergence

Morgan Stanley projects that mobile will pass desktop use in 2014. With the exploding purchase of smartphones in 2010 and significant under-counting of mobile use documented here --- has mobile access already passed web access? The inflection point is clearly 2011, not 2014.

Much has been written about Facebook and Twitter. What has not been raised is that these companies represent the leaders among mobile apps developers. Without mobile apps, these companies would not have grown that quickly.


Mobile is already the most important aspect of web use. Poor measurement systems hide the sea-change from the public.

Jan 24, 2011

Mobile User Demographics

6 ways iPhone and Android users differ

What smartphone click rates tell use about the people who own them

Source: AdMob

Android users are mostly guys. iPod touch owners are overwhelmingly young. And people who carry iPhones are way more likely to lust after an iPad.

Those are a few of differences that emerged from a opt-insurvey of 963 smartphone and iPod touch owners conducted in February by AdMob, the mobile advertising company that Google snapped up in November for $750 million.

In a report issued Thursday morning, AdMob highlights six differences between owners of devices running Apple's (AAPL) iPhone OS, Google's (GOOG) Android OS and Palm's (PALM) WebOS, each nicely illustrated with a color-coded bar chart. See below.

1. Guys and Droids. Maybe it's the appeal of open source; maybe it was the whiff of homophobia in those Motorola Droid ads. For whatever reason, 73% of Android users are male, compared with 58% of webOS users, 57% of iPhone users and 54% iPod touch users.

Source: AdMob

2. Kids with iPods. The iPod touch is a hit with the student crowd, which make sense given that Apple hands them out for free with the purchase of a Mac in its back-to-school promos. Based on the survey, 78% of iPod touch users are younger than 25, compared with 25% of iPhone users and 24% of Android and webOS users.

Source: AdMob

3. Bring on the apps. iPod touch users love their applications -- especially the free ones. They download an average of 12 apps a month, 37% more apps than iPhone and Android users. They also spend a lot more time using them: 100 minutes a day, 25% more time than iPhone and Android users.

Source: AdMob

4. Paying the piper. When it comes to paid apps, iPhone users lead the pack. Half of them buy at least one paid app a month, compared with 21% of Android users, 24% of webOS users and 35% of iPod touch users.

Source: AdMob

5. Happy campers. Smartphone owners tend to favor their own brand, but some favor it more than others. 91% of iPhone users and 88% of iPod touch users would recommend their device, compared with 84% of Android users and 69% of webOS users. webOS users are nearly three and a half times more likely to not recommend their device than iPhone OS users.

Source: AdMob

6. Kindle vs. iPad. Steve Jobs may have been on to something when suggested last month that there was a ready market for the iPad in the 75 million people who already own iPhones or iPod touches. In the AdMob survey, 16% of iPhone users said they intend to purchase an iPad, compared with 11% of webOS users and only 6% of Android users. Nearly as many Android owners favored -- or perhaps they already owned -- Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle.

Source: AdMob

Jan 7, 2011

Snapshot of Keys Users from Android/Linux, Palm, Blackberry, Nokia, and iPhone

Pageviews by Operating Systems
414,581 (34%)
285,090 (23%)
249,240 (20%)

Dec 16, 2010

800,000 Downloads from Android, Blackberry, iPhone, Nokia, Palm, Samsung, Windows phones

Can you believe these downloads? We've reached 800,000. Our projections show that we will fall just shy of one million downloads by the New Year.

Remember, every download saves a shrub, a can of oil, possibly a dolphin, and one mind!

Keep on downloading ;-) Thank you.
Happy Holidays. Tap to select an app!

Dec 1, 2010

650,000 Downloads from Android, Blackberry, iPhone, Nokia, Palm phones

We just reported 500,000 downloads. Thank you.

Now we've reached 650,000. Remember, every download saves a shrub, a can of oil, possibly a dolphin, and one mind!

Keep on downloading ;-)

Music Collection of Apps

Tap an image!

Nov 19, 2010

Mary Meeker: Smartphones Will Surpass PC Shipments In Two Years

Every year at the Web 2.0 Summit, Mary Meeker gives a ten-minute slideshow packed with great data showing the monetum and direction of different Internet trends. This year, a big focus of her presentation was on mobile. Specifically, she put up the slide above showing a Morgan Stanley estimate that global smartphone shipments will eclipse PC shipments in 2012, with more than 400 million smartphones expected to be shipped that year, compared to less than 200 million last year.

This prediction is reasonable. Smartphones are cheaper and phones, in general, are more ubiquitous. To the extent that all phones are becoming smartphones, they will be much more accessible and portable and than PCs (laptops included). They are certainly becoming just as capable, at least as far as surfing the Web is concerned, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of apps available for platforms like the iPhone, Android, and Blackberry. (See Original Article)

Nov 17, 2010

500,000 downloads and counting

500,000 downloads. Thank you.

Remember, every download saves a shrub, a can of oil, possibly a dolphin, and one mind!

Nov 5, 2010

We have a successful takeoff - 400,000 Downloads

We've exceeded 400,000 downloads. Thank you.

Every download saves a shrub, a can of oil, possibly a dolphin, and one mind!

Oct 15, 2010

Another Milestone: 300,000 Keys App Downloads

We've exceeded 300,000 downloads. Thank you.

Every download saves a shrub, a can of oil, possibly a dolphin, and one mind!

Sep 30, 2010

Virtual Goods Expected to Grow by 40 Percent Next Year, Study Says


The booming business in virtual goods — paying real money for things that don’t really exist — is expected to continue booming.

That’s good news for the likes of Zynga and Playfish, and of course, Facebook.

The Inside Network, a research firm that tracks social media trends, said Tuesday that the market for virtual goods in the United States is expected to grow to $2.1 billion in 2011, up from $1.6 billion in 2010. The figures are estimates based on new research conducted by the company, and put the virtual goods market on a path to double in just two years.

Sep 25, 2010

Thanks for 200,000 Downloads; #1 Educational App Network

We've exceeded 200,000 downloads. Wow! Thank you.

#1 Educational App Network

Among the thousands of apps, our initial analysis concludes that it's possible that we have already become the #1 network for educational apps.
  • We passed legacy learning publishers such as Sparks Notes, Cliff Notes, and Barron's Educational Group early this summer.
  • We also passed legacy learning services such as Kaplan, Princeton Review, and six funded start-ups who are attacking that market with web projects.
  • We've looked at the apps provided by textbook publishers such as Brown & Benchmark Publishers, Houghton Mifflin, HarperCollins, Addison-Wesley, Allyn & Bacon, Benjamin Cummings, Longman, Merrill, Prentice Hall, W. W. Norton, Dushkin Publishing, Little Brown, Harcourt Brace and Jovanovich, Worth Publishers, Inc, and McGraw-Hill Publishers
  • We've compiled the downloads of some two dozen independent app publishers.
In seven months, we seemed to have passed everyone - and gaining about 50,000 to 80,000 new downloads per month.

Thanks for the overwhelming support.

Good for the Globe

BTW, downloads save our environment. Consider:
  • Each download saves a tree, or at least a bush ;-)
  • Each download saves a can of oil - used to transport wood to paper mill; to wholesale; to printer; back to wholesale; to retail; and to buy at a store
  • Can a download save a dolphin? We don't use plastic wraps that could find its way to our oceans and choke ocean friends.
  • Most importantly, can a download save a mind?
Is Bill Gates correct with his prediction? Keep on downloading ;-)

Aug 28, 2010

Mobile Metrics, thanks for 150,000 downloads

We have reached 150,000 since March 2010. Thank you.

Traditional Metrics are Failing

Measuring mobile use has been a challenge as traditional companies such as Alexa, Compete, Google Analytics, and Neilsen have failed to keep up with the massive shift of users to mobile devices. Devices such as the iPhone and WAP phones don't allow background tasks that traditionally report what users are seeing on the web.

Legacy phone surveys are biased; and simply too slow to keep up with the quickly changing landscape.

The graph below shows the web views of Interestingly, it shows the drastic decline of their own visits as has become less relevant in measuring web activity.

Similarly, Google Analytics (GA) reports that 83.1% of our users come via direct sources to our sites, and not from search or referral sources. Further, 71% use an unknown phone. Essentially, GA does not know the source of our 150,000 plus users; and inaccurately reports the minority of data that reaches them through the slower 3G networks.

Cobbling the Answer

Developers depend on data to assess user loyalty and plan feature improvements. Today, we cobble together solutions through piecemeal reports from dozens of inaccurate sources. For example:
  • We use multiple light-weight systems to redundantly monitor use. Since networks depend on slow 3G, the monitoring mechanism is light weight to avoid harming the user experience.
  • Apple supplies half a dozen reports on downloads and purchases. It's not real time. There is no central system.
  • Most reports have varying delays from several hours for GA, to 2 business days for Palm, and 30 days for Apple.
  • The many reports rarely agree in terms of the number of visitors, but does agree on the overall trends.
Thus, our compilation and analysis of data is slow and imperfect.

Is there a solution on the horizon? Unfortunately, the answer is no.
  • The mobile platforms can produce better reports, but it's not on the priority list for Apple, Google, Blackberry, or Palm.
  • Further, the solution would still be fragmented and subject to each company's interpretation of the raw data.
  • 4G deployments would take years to reach the majority of users. Once deployed, background tasks from third parties could better report the results.
Pundits Keep Blogging

Despite the lack of data, the experts continue to blog about mobile. Thousands of independent developers hold the real, but fragmented data on the true growth of mobile. But, are we not like the famed fable of the blind men and the elephant?

Without formal data, readers should beware that conclusions reported by even the top news sources, like the New York Times, simply lack credibility.

An example of incorrect trends includes the stories on the Palm community. While the press has reported negatively on Palm, our data shows a loyal, thriving, active community.

The only significant trend is that mobile is growing -- very, very fast.

Thank you for 150,000 downloads.

PS: Our goal is to reach 1 million downloads by Christmas. Stay tuned as we work with our partners to enable this growth.

Aug 19, 2010

State of the Web Economy 2010

Chris Anderson at Wired Magazine led another lively discussion about the future of the web. On TV, Meg Whitman says she created 15,000 jobs at eBay, enabled lots of entrepreneurs, and now wants to become the Governor of California. Thousands of blogs write daily about the future of the web.

What is the factual state of the web economy?

We collected first-hand research to estimate the state of the web economy. While some may blog about the bad economy and the new web - our data concludes that it's already alive; supporting some 600,000 entrepreneurs; and growing despite the recession.

Long Tail of Entrepreneurs

The 80-20 rule states that 80% of the rewards are earned by the top 20%. Lemming analysts would even argue for 90-10 or 99-1. I've personally wondered whether any of these analysts truly know the economic power of the 80%, 90%, or 99% in the long tail that thrives on today's web.

Who are these entrepreneurs?
  • Most are statistically labeled as unemployed or moonlighting. Legacy magazines also earn a significant share.
  • Huge numbers have blogs (millions), apps (hundreds of thousands), websites, and social pages (tens of millions.)
  • Many have storefronts at eBay, Yahoo, Amazon, Apple...
  • In short, entrepreneurs explore any and all sources to dig for revenues.
  • Most offer consulting to support their web explorations.
Sourcing the Data

With no public reporting sources, we chose to mine the financial reports of public companies to estimate the size of this web economy. I ferreted out the advertising, app, and commerce revenues that represent the gross margins paid to the long tail.

Here's what's included:
  • 100% of the payments from Google to the long tail of AdSense affiliates - while excluding distribution fees that are paid to the larger affiliates like AOL and Myspace. Google does not itemize Checkout transactions or the Android Marketplace payments in their SEC reports, which would represent additional payments collected on behalf of the long tail.
  • An estimated 50% of the affiliate revenues from Yahoo that are paid to partners - large and small. Yahoo does not itemize payments from Yahoo retail.
  • 70% of the Music (ie itunes) and Software (ie appstore) revenues reported by Apple. Although this includes revenues for Apple's own products and software; and thus, overstates what is paid to the long tail - this estimate does partially compensate the many independent appstores that don't publicly report their payments.
  • eBay reports GMV (gross merchandise value) and Paypal transaction volume. These numbers tend to overlap when Paypal is used to clear the GMV purchases at eBay. Since most of the GMV and Paypal transctions involve high cost of goods, we chose a rough 10% for each revenue stream to estimate the value-added by the entrepreneur; thus estimating an average 20% gross margins for goods sold on eBay using Paypal. (Note, gross margins for retail range from 15% for Costco to 30% for Target.)
  • Amazon increasingly depends on third-party products where Amazon earns referral, listing, and shipping fees. Amazon charges higher referral fees for media products and lower fees for tangible products. We've estimated the gross margins earned by the long tail through Amazon for each of these product groups.
  • Microsoft pays substantial Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC); and royalties to game publishers, but does not itemize these payments in SEC reports; and has reorganized so often that its impossible to estimate the payments. Since most of the payments reward larger companies like Yahoo and EA, it does not benefit the long tail. Thus, the omission of this data in the chart above does not significantly bias the results of this research.
What's missing from the earnings of the web economy includes:
  • Consulting earned by prominent bloggers, app developers, SEO consultants, and social entrepreneurs.
  • Payments by the hundreds of advertising networks that are still private - including those that pay Zygna and other game developers. This also should include revenues received by Federated Media that is paid to their blog network; and Techcrunch's revenues from their events, advertising, and other creative sources, but there is no way to estimate these sources.
  • Online games that don't use Paypal for monetization.
  • Earnings from other app networks, that is partially covered with our over estimation of Apple payments.
  • Craig's list transactions.
Am I missing significant other sources? Can you think of other factors to fully estimate the value of the web economy?

Surprising Conclusions

Here are my conclusions:
  • Earnings easily exceed $10 billion a quarter. Since this estimate represents gross margins available to pay salaries and rent, the web economy is roughly three times the size of Google.
  • Commerce, advertising, and paid content over mobile have statistically equal contributions.
  • Revenues are seasonal, reflecting the sources that includes eBay, Amazon, and Apple. Quarter 4 revenues typically jump 30% to 50%.
  • This earning stream can sustain over 600,000 paid jobs; probably from multiple millions of participants where hundreds of thousands have already gained self sustaining status.
  • We guess that most of this stream is paid to North American entrepreneurs. Asian entrepreneurs have their own store fronts that are not included in this study.
  • About half of this stream is exported outside of North America; with the payments repatriated to North American entrepreneurs.
  • In two years, Apple has become a significant payer to the long tail; and could pass eBay, Amazon, and Google in 2011. Apple, Amazon, and Google Android have all reported the highest growth of payments for digital content over mobile.
Is the issue really about choosing among advertising revenues, commerce, or content subscriptions? Savvy entrepreneurs know to chase a little from all the above.

Why is Obama struggling with creating jobs? Perhaps Meg Whitman really knows the answer. It does not matter whether our leaders are Democrats or Republicans. What matters is that they need to be aware of and understand the growth engine that is already part of this slow economy.

Maintaining the Web Economy Index

These six companies (and dozens of new enterprises like Facebook, Motorola, HP, Cisco, ...) who seek to build app stores, must take their vision of supporting the long tail seriously. After all, entrepreneurs depend on them to make a viable living.

Conversely, the long tail needs to speak with stronger voices when web leaders make choices that adversely influences the long tail.

Do you agree?

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